Nass Update to Aug.29th

Here's the latest Nass Update to Aug.29th as provided courtesy of Nisga'a Fisheries.
Since we are getting into steelhead season, we've taken the liberty of pasting the steelhead section at the beginning.


2008 NASS STOCK ASSESSMENT UPDATE

NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD:

IN-SEASON RUN SIZE ESTIMATES OR OTHER INFORMATION PRESENTED FOR NASS STEELHEAD ARE ONLY FOR SUMMER RUNS (I.E., DO NOT INCLUDE ANY ESTIMATES FOR WINTER OR SPRING RUN STEELHEAD) AND ONLY COVER RETURN INFORMATION FROM JUNE TO SEPTEMBER WHEN THE FISHWHEELS TYPICALLY OPERATE.

THE FISHWHEEL CATCH OF STEELHEAD (489) TO DATE IS BELOW AVERAGE (543) FROM 2000-2007 FISHWHEEL OPERATIONS. HOWEVER, ONLY FIVE FISHWHEELS ARE FISHING IN 2008 VERSUS SIX AND A GOOD PORTION OF THE STEELHEAD CATCH OCCURS AT GREASE HARBOUR WHERE FOUR FISHWHEELS HAVE TYPICALLY OPERATED. HOWEVER, ABOVE AVERAGE CATCHES TO DATE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE PAST WEEK WHEN COMPARING GITWINKSIHLKW CUMULATIVE CATCHES BY PERIOD (SEE ATTACHMENT).

THE NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD IN-SEASON RUN SIZE ESTIMATE TO GITWINKSIHLKW (3771) IS CURRENTLY TRACKING BELOW AVERAGE (4328) TO DATE BASED ON A MEAN RUN SIZE TO GITWINKSIHLKW OF 7800 DURING FISHWHEEL OPERATIONS FROM 1994 TO 2007 (BASED ON PRELIMINARY HISTORICAL RUN SIZE DATA). HOWEVER, DURING TYPICAL GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEEL OPERATION, THE PRELIMINARY RUN SIZE TARGET FOR NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD TO GITWINKSIHLKW IS 4200 DEPENDING ON ANY LOSSES PROJECTED ABOVE GITWINKSIHLKW.

THE IN-SEASON RUN SIZE ESTIMATE IS A COMBINATION OF MARK-RECAPTURE AND HISTORICAL CATCH INDICES METHODS. THE MARK-RECAPTURE ESTIMATE IS USING MARK RATES DERIVED FROM THE COHO ASSESSMENT PROGRAM THAT ASSUMES SIMILAR CATCHABILITY BETWEEN COHO AND STEELHEAD BASED ON SIMILAR RUN TIMING PATTERNS. MARK-RATE SAMPLE SIZES ARE MUCH LARGER AND MORE RELIABLE FOR COHO THAN USING STEELHEAD MARK RATE DATA. STEELHEAD RUN SIZE ESTIMATES WILL CHANGE OVER A 7-DAY PERIOD DUE TO COHO MARK RATES STABILIZING AT GREASE HARBOUR AS TAGGED FISH AT GITWINKSIHLKW PASS THE UPSTREAM GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEEL SITES OVER A 7-DAY PERIOD. A SPREADSHEET OF THE CALCULATIONS AND RANGE OF ESTIMATES IS PROVIDED IN THE ATTACHMENT.

THE IN-SEASON NET RUN SIZE ESTIMATE ABOVE GREASE HARBOUR FOR NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD IS 3737. THE NET RUN SIZE TARGET FOR NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD ABOVE GREASE HARBOUR IS ~4000 DURING TYPICAL OPERATIONS OF THE GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST ESTIMATE (5600) IS PREDICTING A GOOD PROBABILITY OF REACHING THE ESCAPEMENT TARGET (~4000) BASED ON THE IN-SEASON TO FINAL ESTIMATE REGRESSION METHOD.

TOTAL COUNTS OF STEELHEAD AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY TO DATE ARE: 0 ADULTS (0 TAGS). THE 2008 CUMULATIVE ADULT COUNT (0) TO DATE IS BELOW THE AVERAGE (1) BASED ON MEAN COUNTS AT THE MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007. THE AVERAGE COUNT OF STEELHEAD DURING OPERATION OF MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007 WAS 50. STEELHEAD BEGIN PASSING THE FISHWAY IN LATE AUGUST.

THE NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS STEELHEAD TO WEEK ENDING 23 AUGUST IS 124. A TOTAL OF 26 STEELHEAD WERE ALSO RELEASED ALIVE DURING THE MARINE INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERIES CONDUCTED BETWEEN 16 JULY AND 1 AUGUST. THE NISGA’A CATCH MONITORING PROGRAM HAS NOW ENDED FOR 2008. SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO NISGA’A CATCH OF STEELHEAD WILL BE MADE IN FUTURE UPDATES BASED ON AVERAGE CATCHES WHEN MONITORING WAS CONDUCTED INTO SEPTEMBER. THE AVERAGE HARVEST OF NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD IN NISGA'A FISHERIES IS 400 FROM 1994 TO 2007.


ALL DATA PRESENTED IN THIS UPDATE ARE PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH FURTHER ASSESSMENT INFORMATION THAT BECOMES AVAILABLE AND SHOULD BE INTERPRETATED CAUTIOUSLY FOR IN-SEASON ASSESSMENT PURPOSES ONLY.

ARCHIVED UPDATES AND ANNOUNCEMENTS FROM NISGA'A FISHERIES AND WILDLIFE DEPARTMENT ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

FTP://ftp.lgl.com/pub//NASS_STOCK_ASSESSMENT_UPDATES

(NOTE: IT IS RECOMMENDED TO COPY FILES TO YOUR MACHINE BEFORE OPENING)

NASS FISHWHEEL OPERATIONAL NOTES:

FISHWHEEL ASSESSMENT DATA UP TO THURSDAY 28 AUGUST 2008.

GW FISHWHEELS (TEST FISHERY - 15TH YEAR): FISHWHEELS 1 AND 2 WERE STARTED ON 5 JUNE FOR TAGGING AND HISTORICAL CATCH INDEX ASSESSMENTS FOR SALMON AND STEELHEAD.

FISHWHEELS 1 AND 2 ARE OPERATING AT A WATER LEVEL OF 2.4 M THAT IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR DATE. AVERAGE WATER LEVEL FROM 1992 TO 2007 WAS 1.9 M FOR DATE. NOTE THAT BOTH FISHWHEELS WERE SHUTDOWN ON 25 AUGUST FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DUE TO HIGH WATER LEVELS REACHING AS HIGH AS 4.2 M.

ALL FISH CAUGHT IN THE GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEELS HAVE BEEN RELEASED.

GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEELS: THREE FISHWHEELS OPERATE AT GREASE HARBOUR FOR IN-SEASON MARK RECAPTURE TAG RECOVERIES. THE FISHWHEEL STARTUP DATES WERE: 11 JUNE (FW5), 12 JUNE (FW6) AND 13 JUNE (FW3).
THREE FISHWHEELS ARE CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL. NOTE THAT FW 6 WAS SHUTDOWN FROM 24-27 AUGUST AND FW 3 FROM 25-26 AUGUST DUE TO HIGH WATER LEVELS. BOTH WERE RESTARTED ON 27 AUGUST.

ALL FISH CAUGHT IN THE GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEELS HAVE BEEN RELEASED.

SINCE ONLY THREE FISHWHEELS ARE FISHING AT GREASE HARBOUR COMPARED TO FOUR SINCE 2000, TOTAL FISHWHEEL CATCHES IN 2008 AS REPORTED BELOW WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY COMPARABLE WITH FISHWHEEL CATCH AVERAGES FROM 2000 TO 2007. CATCH AVERAGE COMPARISONS AT THE GW FISHWHEELS WILL BE COMPARABLE AND ARE PROVIDED IN ATTACHMENT.

NASS SOCKEYE SALMON:

THE NASS SOCKEYE RUN SIZE ESTIMATE TO GITWINKSIHLKW TO DATE (191,604) IS TRACKING BELOW AVERAGE (273,000) FOR DATE BASED ON A MEAN RUN SIZE TO GITWINKSIHLKW OF 281,000 FROM 1994 TO 2007. NOTE THAT THE RUN SIZE IS SMALLER THAN THE LAST UPDATE DUE TO MARK-RATE ADJUSTMENTS FROM DATA COLLECTED AT THE GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEELS. THE RUN SIZE HAS LEVELLED OFF OVER THE PAST WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE WATER LEVELS AND THE HIGH WATER SPIKE ON 25 AUGUST THAT SHUTDOWN THE FISHWHEELS FOR A PORTION OF A DAY.

THE RUN SIZE ESTIMATE IS A COMBINATION OF MARK-RECAPTURE AND HISTORICAL CATCH INDICES METHODS. THE MARK RECAPTURE ESTIMATES WILL CHANGE OVER A 5-DAY PERIOD DUE TO MARK RATES STABILIZING AT GREASE HARBOUR AS FISH TAGGED AT GITWINKSIHLKW PASS THE UPSTREAM GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEEL SITES OVER A 5-DAY PERIOD. AFTER THE MARK RATE STABILIZES, THE DAILY ESTIMATE IS BETTER AT PREDICTING ACTUAL CATCH EFFICIENCIES AT THE GW FISHWHEELS THAN THE HISTORICAL INDICES AND AN ADJUSTMENT WILL BE MADE TO THE PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES. AS SUCH WE USE HISTORICAL CATCH EFFICIENCIES DURING THE 5-D FLUCTUATING PERIOD WHILE MARK RECAPTURE ESTIMATES ARE STABILIZING FOR LESS FLUCTUATING ESTIMATES THAT ARE REPORTED. CURRENTLY, MARK RECAPTURE ESTIMATES ARE FINAL TO 23 AUGUST AND LATER DATES WILL FLUCTUATE FROM 24 AUGUST TO 2 SEPTEMBER AS ADDITIONAL CATCH AND TAG RECOVERY DATA BECOME AVAILABLE FROM THE GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEELS. A SPREADSHEET OF THE CALCULATIONS AND RANGE OF ESTIMATES IS PROVIDED IN THE ATTACHMENT.

THE RUN SIZE TARGET FOR NASS SOCKEYE TO GITWINKSIHLKW IS ~218,000 FOR 2008 BASED ON HARVESTS PROJECTED ABOVE GITWINKSIHLKW. NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT APPROXIMATELY 98% (93-07 MEDIAN) OF THE SOCKEYE RUN HAS PASSED GITWINKSIHLKW TO DATE. USING FINAL MARK-RECAPTURE ESTIMATES TO 23 AUGUST, CURRENT FORECAST METHODS ARE PREDICTING THAT THE FINAL RUN SIZE PROJECTION WILL NOT REACH THE TARGET WITH ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 197,000 (MEAN RUN TIMING METHOD - RANGE 194,000-201,000) TO 203,000 (IN-SEASON TO FINAL METHOD). HOWEVER, PRELIMINARY MARK RECAPTURE DATA AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY SUGGEST THAT THE IN-SEASON RUN SIZE (AND FORECAST) ESTIMATES AT GITWINKSIHLKW ARE CONSERVATIVE AND MAY BE ~10% HIGHER (~20,000) ASSUMING A 18-D LAG AND 20% MARK LOSS RATE. IN ADDITION, THE MINIMUM ESCAPEMENT TARGET LEVEL HAS BEEN ACHIEVED FOR 2008 FOR NASS SOCKEYE.

THE IN-SEASON NET ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATE FOR NASS SOCKEYE TO DATE IS 174,584. THE NET ESCAPEMENT TARGET IS 200,000 (160,000 TO MEZIADIN RIVER AND 40,000 TO NON-MEZIADIN SYSTEMS).

MEZIADIN FISHWAY OPENED ON 1 JULY FOR ESCAPEMENT COUNTS TO RIVER. TOTAL COUNTS OF SOCKEYE AT MEZIADIN TO 28 AUGUST ARE: 128,837 ADULTS (4310 TAGS) AND 1574 JACKS. THE 2008 CUMULATIVE ADULT COUNT TO DATE IS BELOW AVERAGE (138,000) BASED ON MEAN COUNTS AT THE MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007. HOWEVER, HIGH WATER LEVELS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST WEEK HAVE SLOWED THE DAILY COUNTS SUBSTANTIALLY. THE AVERAGE COUNT OF ADULT SOCKEYE FROM 1994 TO 2007 WAS 170,000. CURRENT FORECAST METHODS ARE PREDICTING THAT THE ESCAPEMENT TARGET (160,000) MAY BE REACHED WITH RANGES FROM 154,000 (ADJUSTED FISHWHEEL MEAN RUN TIMING METHOD ASSUMING THE MAXIMUM MEZIADIN STOCK PROPORTION (85%)) TO 156-160,000 (MEZIADIN MEAN RUN TIMING AND IN-SEASON TO FINAL COUNT METHODS). NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT ~83% OF THE MEZIADIN SOCKEYE RUN HAS REACHED THE FISHWAY TO DATE BASED ON MEAN COUNTS FROM 1990 TO 2007.

NISGA'A FISHERIES IS USING A PRELIMINARY TOTAL RETURN TO CANADA (TRTC) ESTIMATE FOR NASS SOCKEYE OF BETWEEN ~320,000 (IN-SEASON) AND 350,000 (PRE-SEASON) FOR TRACKING THE NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS SOCKEYE THAT IS RANGING BETWEEN 45,000 AND 52,000. TRTC RETURNS ARE INFLUENCED BY ALASKAN CATCHES WHICH ARE CURRENTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR DATE BUT GILLNET AND SEINE FISHERIES CONTINUE TO OCCUR IN DISTRICTS 101 TO 104. THE 2008 TRTC RETURN WAS PROJECTED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE (666,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS FROM 1994 TO 2007.

THE TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS SOCKEYE TO DATE IS 45,356. THE TOTAL INCLUDES FSC CATCH (27,628) TO WEEK ENDING 23 AUGUST AND INDIVIDUAL MARINE SALE FISHERY CATCH ESTIMATES TO DATE (17,728). THE ANNUAL TOTAL AVERAGE NISGA'A FSC HARVEST FROM 2000 TO 2007 OF NASS SOCKEYE WAS 26,000. THE NISGA’A CATCH MONITORING PROGRAM HAS NOW ENDED FOR 2008. SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO NISGA’A CATCH OF SOCKEYE WILL BE MADE IN FUTURE UPDATES BASED ON AVERAGE CATCHES WHEN MONITORING WAS CONDUCTED INTO SEPTEMBER.

NISGA'A FOOD FISH (FSC) HARVESTING IS OPEN FOR ALL SPECIES. GIVEN THAT THE TOTAL FSC AMOUNT WAS PROJECTED TO NOT EXCEED THE TOTAL NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT ESTIMATE FOR 2008, THE REMAINING ENTITLEMENT (~20,000) WAS AVAILABLE FOR SALE FISHERIES. THE DIRECTOR OF NISGA'A FISHERIES AND WILDLIFE OPENED THE NISGA'A MARINE INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERY FOR HARVESTING NASS SOCKEYE AS SALE FISHERIES FOR FOUR 48-HR OPENINGS FROM 16 JULY TO 1 AUGUST THAT CAUGHT A TOTAL OF 17,728 SOCKEYE. AS A RESULT OF THE CURRENT ASSESSMENTS OF RUN SIZE AND NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS SOCKEYE, THE MARINE INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERY CLOSED FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2008. IN-RIVER SALE FISHERIES DID NOT OPEN FOR 2008 INCLUDING HARVESTING FROM THE FISHWHEELS. ALL FISH WERE RELEASED FROM THE FISHWHEELS.

FOUR NISGA'A INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERIES OCCURRED IN 2008 (16-17 JULY [17 BOATS]; 17-18 JULY [17 BOATS]; 23-25 JULY [17 BOATS]; 30 JULY - 1 AUGUST [~21 BOATS]) IN AREA 3-12. TOTAL CATCHES IN THE NISGA'A MARINE SALE FISHERIES WERE: 17,728 SOCKEYE; 3,438 PINK; 793 COHO AND 276 CHUM.

THE NISGA'A NATION PASSED A RESOLUTION AT THE SPECIAL ASSEMBLY IN MAY 2008 RECOMMENDING THE CLOSURE OF THE GENERAL COMMERCIAL FISHERY IN AREA 3-12 DUE TO PRE-SEASON CONSERVATION CONCERNS OF NASS SOCKEYE AND CHINOOK. DFO KEPT AREA 3-12 CLOSED TO 20 JULY DUE TO THE POOR RETURN OF CHINOOK AND ENSURING GOOD ESCAPEMENT OF NASS SOCKEYE INTO THE RIVER AT THE TIME. DFO OPENED AREA 3-12 TO THE GENERAL COMMERCIAL FISHERY STARTING ON 21 JULY WITH THE MAJORITY OF NASS CHINOOK THROUGH THE MARINE WATERS AND THE NASS SOCKEYE RUN TRACKING ON TARGET OF REACHING THE ESCAPEMENT GOAL AT THE TIME. AREA 3-12 HAS BEEN CLOSED SINCE 27 JULY AND THE REST OF AREA 3 SINCE 29 JULY. A TOTAL OF 7633 SOCKEYE WERE CAUGHT IN AREA 3 BETWEEN 21 JULY AND 27 JULY. DFO HAVE ANNOUNCED A GENERAL CLOSURE OF AREAS 3 TO 6 FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2008 TO SEINES AND GILLNETS.

AREA 3 FISHERIES CONDUCTED IN 2008 TO DATE HAVE BEEN 7 GILLNET [24 JUNE (170 BOATS), 1 JULY (209 BOATS), 7 JULY (174 BOATS), 14 JULY (179 BOATS), 15 JULY (5 BOATS), 21 JULY (16) AND 27 JULY (33)] AND 4 SEINE (14 JULY (13 BOATS), 15 JULY (5 BOATS), 21 JULY (13 BOATS) AND 29 JULY (7 BOATS)) FISHERIES. TOTAL COMMERCIAL HARVEST ESTIMATES IN AREA 3 TO 29 AUGUST ARE: 37,501 SOCKEYE; 17,972 PINK; 14,135 CHUM AND 405 CHINOOK (SOURCE OF DATA IS FROM DFO PRINCE RUPERT FISHERIES MANAGEMENT).

ALASKAN GILLNET FISHERIES IN DISTRICTS 101 (TREE POINT) AND 106 (SUMNER AND UPPER CLARENCE) BEGAN ON 15 JUNE AND 8 JUNE, RESPECTIVELY. ALASKAN SEINE FISHERIES OPENING DATES WERE: DISTRICTS 101 (LOWER CLARENCE/REVILLA; OPENED ON 6 JULY), 102 (MIDDLE CLARENCE; OPENED ON 22 JUNE), 103 (CORDOVA; OPENED 24 JULY) AND 104 (NOYES/DALL; OPENED ON 6 JULY). LATEST ALASKAN OPENINGS ARE: GN (101 AND 106) - 31 AUGUST TO 3-4 SEPTEMBER; AND SN (101-104) – 30-31 AUGUST.

TOTAL IN-SEASON CATCH ESTIMATE OF SOCKEYE IN SOUTHEAST ALASKAN FISHERIES IS 123,260 BASED ON DATA TO 28 AUGUST ON THE ADFG WEBSITE AND IS INCOMPLETE CATCH REPORTING FOR WEEK 35 (ENDS 30 AUGUST). REPORTED CATCHES ARE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TO DATE. THE AVERAGE CATCH OF SOCKEYE IN SOUTHEAST ALASKAN FISHERIES IS 714,000 SOCKEYE FROM 1999 TO 2007.

OF THE TOTAL ALASKAN CATCH OF SOCKEYE, NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING APPROXIMATELY ~35,000 ARE NASS SOCKEYE BASED ON AVERAGE STOCK % DATA (1982-98) AND IS BELOW AVERAGE TO DATE. AVERAGE CATCH OF NASS SOCKEYE IS 165,000 FROM 1999 TO 2007.



NASS CHINOOK SALMON:

THE NASS CHINOOK RUN SIZE ESTIMATE TO GITWINKSIHLKW (14,054) IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR DATE (22,500) BASED ON A MEAN RUN SIZE TO GITWINKSIHLKW OF 22,500 FROM 1994 TO 2007. THE RUN SIZE TARGET FOR NASS CHINOOK TO GITWINKSIHLKW IS 17,000 DEPENDING ON HARVESTS PROJECTED ABOVE GITWINKSIHLKW. THE IN-SEASON TRACKING OF THE NASS CHINOOK RUN TO GITWINKSIHLKW PREDICTED ~14,000 [MEAN RUN TIMING METHOD AND IN-SEASON TO FINAL METHOD] AS THE FINAL IN-SEASON RUN SIZE TOTAL TO GITWINKSIHLKW. THE 2008 RETURN TO DATE IS THE THIRD WORST ON RECORD SINCE THE START OF THE NISGA'A FISHERIES PROGRAM IN 1992. NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT 100% (93-07 MEDIAN) OF THE RUN HAS PASSED GITWINKSIHLKW TO DATE.

THE IN-SEASON NET ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATE FOR NASS CHINOOK IS 12,844. THE NET ESCAPEMENT TARGET FOR NASS CHINOOK ABOVE GREASE HARBOUR IS 15,000. A PRELIMINARY REVIEW OF MARK-RECAPTURE DATA AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY IS INDICATING THAT IN-SEASON ESTIMATES MAY BE CONSERVATIVE AND FINAL POST-SEASON ESTIMATES MAY BE HIGHER SUGGESTING A POSSIBILITY THAT THE ESCAPEMENT TARGET MAY BE REACHED IN 2008. NOTE THAT THE MINIMUM ESCAPEMENT TARGET FOR NASS CHINOOK HAS BEEN ACHIEVED IN 2008.

TOTAL COUNTS OF CHINOOK AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY TO 28 AUGUST ARE: 469 ADULTS (15 TAGS) AND 58 JACKS. THE 2008 CUMULATIVE ADULT COUNT (469) TO DATE IS ABOVE AVERAGE (384) BASED ON MEAN COUNTS AT THE MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007. THE AVERAGE COUNT OF ADULT CHINOOK AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007 WAS 480. THE FISHWHEEL MEAN-RUN TIMING FORECAST IS PREDICTING 590 CHINOOK TO REACH THE FISHWAY BASED ON CURRENT ESCAPEMENT PASSED GW AND ESTIMATED STOCK COMPOSITION (4.7%). OTHER FORECASTS RANGE BETWEEN 570 (IN-SEASON TO FINAL MEZIADIN COUNT METHOD) AND 600 (MEZIADIN MEAN RUN TIMING METHOD). NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT ~78% OF THE MEZIADIN CHINOOK RUN HAS PASSED THE FISHWAY TO DATE BASED ON MEAN COUNTS FROM 1990 TO 2007. MARK-RECAPTURE SURVEYS FOR FINAL ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATES ARE ALSO PLANNED AT KWINAGEESE AND DAMDOCHAX RIVERS IN SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE KINCOLITH VIDEO-COUNTING FENCE BEGAN OPERATION ON 11 JUNE FOR COLLECTING ESCAPEMENT DATA FOR THE KINCOLITH RIVER AND PROVIDING AN INDEX OF ESCAPEMENT TO COASTAL STREAMS IN AREA 3. NET UPSTREAM COUNTS AT THE WEIR TO 26 AUGUST ARE: 844 CHINOOK (177 AFC AND 39 BROODSTOCK), 604 PINK, 33 COHO AND 12 CHUM. OTHER WEIR COUNTS TO DATE ARE: 12 STEELHEAD (8 DOWN AND 4 UP) AND 6 CUTTHROAT/RAINBOW TROUT (2 UP & 4 DOWN IN JULY; <50 CM AND SEA RUN; FINAL ID CONFIRMED AT END OF SEASON). THE CURRENT COUNT OF CHINOOK PASSING THE WEIR (844) IS BELOW THE AVERAGE COUNT (1087) FOR THE DATE FROM PAST OPERATIONS (2001, 2002, 2005-2007). HOWEVER, NISGA'A FISHERIES PROJECTED THAT THE ESCAPEMENT GOAL (700) WOULD BE REACHED IN 2008 BASED ON THE RUN SIZE FORECAST METHOD WHICH IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATING ~875 (RANGE 900-1000) FROM MEAN RUN TIMING FROM PAST OPERATIONS (2001, 2002, 2005-2007). NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT ~96% OF THE KINCOLITH CHINOOK RUN HAS PASSED THE WEIR TO DATE BASED ON THE RECONSTRUCTED MEAN RUN TIMING.

NISGA'A FISHERIES IS USING A PRELIMINARY TRTC ESTIMATE FOR NASS CHINOOK OF BETWEEN 20,500 (IN-SEASON) AND 21,000 (PRE-SEASON) FOR TRACKING THE NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS CHINOOK. THE 2008 TRTC ESTIMATES FORECASTED FOR A BELOW AVERAGE RETURN (36,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS FROM 1994 TO 2007. UNCERTAINTY OF MARINE COMMERCIAL AND RECREATIONAL CATCHES OF NASS CHINOOK MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY ESTIMATE IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATES FOR NASS CHINOOK. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATES FOR 2008, THE NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS CHINOOK IS ~4000. ALL OR A PORTION OF THE CUMULATIVE UNDERAGE OF 3300 FROM PAST YEAR'S MANAGEMENT UNCERTAINTY MAY BE NEEDED TO FULFILL NISGA'A FSC NEEDS IN 2008 WHICH ON AVERAGE TOTALS 6200 NASS CHINOOK. DEPENDING ON FINAL FSC REQUIREMENTS, THE ENTITLEMENT TARGET IS EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000.

THE NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS CHINOOK TO WEEK ENDING 23 AUGUST IS 4338 (INCLUDING ANGLING HARVESTS ON KINCOLITH RIVER) AND BELOW AVERAGE (00-07). THE ANNUAL TOTAL AVERAGE NISGA'A FSC HARVEST OF NASS CHINOOK FROM 2000 TO 2007 WAS 6200. THE NISGA’A CATCH MONITORING PROGRAM HAS NOW ENDED FOR 2008. SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO NISGA’A CATCH OF CHINOOK WILL BE MADE IN FUTURE UPDATES BASED ON AVERAGE CATCHES WHEN MONITORING WAS CONDUCTED INTO SEPTEMBER. NO CHINOOK WERE PERMITTED FOR SALE IN ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERIES THAT WERE CONDUCTED IN 2008.

NASS COHO SALMON:

THE NASS COHO RUN SIZE ESTIMATE TO GITWINKSIHLKW (78,716) IS TRACKING ABOVE AVERAGE (59,000) FOR DATE BASED ON A MEAN RUN SIZE TO GITWINKSIHLKW OF 76,000 FROM 1994 TO 2007. THE RUN SIZE TARGET FOR NASS COHO TO GITWINKSIHLKW IS ~50,000 DEPENDING ON HARVESTS PROJECTED ABOVE GITWINKSIHLKW AND DURING TYPICAL GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEEL OPERATION (JUNE TO EARLY-MID SEPTEMBER). NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT ~79% (93-07 MEDIAN) OF THE RUN HAS PASSED GITWINKSIHLKW TO DATE BASED ON TYPICAL OPERATION OF FISHWHEELS. THE RUN SIZE ESTIMATES ARE CONSERVATIVE FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER NASS COHO STOCKS AS COHO CONTINUE TO PASS THE FISHWHEELS AFTER OPERATIONS.

THE RUN SIZE ESTIMATES ARE A COMBINATION OF MARK-RECAPTURE AND HISTORICAL CATCH INDICES METHODS. NOTE THAT MARK RECAPTURE ESTIMATES WILL CHANGE OVER A 7-DAY PERIOD DUE TO MARK RATES STABILIZING AT GREASE HARBOUR AS COHO TAGGED AT GITWINKSIHLKW PASS THE UPSTREAM GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEEL SITES OVER THE 7-DAY PERIOD. A SPREADSHEET OF THE CALCULATIONS AND RANGE IN ESTIMATES IS PROVIDED IN THE ATTACHMENT.

THE IN-SEASON NET ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATE FOR NASS COHO IS 78,170. THE NET ESCAPEMENT TARGET FOR NASS COHO ABOVE GREASE HARBOUR IS ~41,000 DURING TYPICAL OPERATIONS OF THE GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEELS FROM JUNE TO FIRST OR SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. THE NET ESCAPEMENT TARGET HAS BEEN ACHIEVED IN 2008 BASED ON CURRENT IN-SEASON ESTIMATES. CURRENT FORECAST ESTIMATES OF ESCAPEMENT ARE PREDICTING FROM 99,000 (IN-SEASON TO FINAL ESTIMATE METHOD) TO 98,000 (FISHWHEEL MEAN RUN TIMING; RANGE 85,000-111,000) TO REACH GITWINKSIHLKW.

TOTAL COUNTS OF COHO AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY TO 28 AUGUST ARE: 148 ADULTS (0 TAGS) AND 11 JACKS. THE 2008 CUMULATIVE ADULT COUNT (148) TO DATE IS CURRENTLY BELOW AVERAGE (387) BASED ON MEAN COUNTS AT THE MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007. THE AVERAGE COUNT OF ADULT COHO AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007 WAS 3600.

NISGA'A FISHERIES IS USING A PRELIMINARY TRTC ESTIMATE FOR NASS COHO OF BETWEEN 104,000 (PRE-SEASON) AND 181,000 (IN-SEASON) FOR TRACKING THE NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS COHO THAT IS CURRENTLY RANGING BETWEEN 8,000 AND 14,500. THE 2008 IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATE IS CURRENTLY PROJECTING FOR AN AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE RETURN (162,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS FROM 1994 TO 2007.

THE TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS COHO TO DATE IS 2857. THIS TOTAL INCLUDES FSC CATCH (2064) TO WEEK ENDING 23 AUGUST AND INDIVIDUAL MARINE SALE FISHERY CATCH ESTIMATE TO DATE (793). THE NISGA’A CATCH MONITORING PROGRAM HAS NOW ENDED FOR 2008. SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO NISGA’A CATCH OF COHO WILL BE MADE IN FUTURE UPDATES BASED ON AVERAGE CATCHES WHEN MONITORING WAS CONDUCTED INTO SEPTEMBER.

NASS PINK SALMON:

THE FISHWHEEL CATCH OF PINK SALMON (1632) TO DATE IS WELL BELOW THE MEAN CATCH (15,000) FOR EVEN-YEAR RETURNS FROM 2000 TO 2007.

NISGA'A FISHERIES DOWNSIZED THE PRE-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATE (569,000) TO ~285,000 (~1/2 OF PRE-SEASON ESTIMATE) ON 15 AUGUST FOR NASS PINKS BASED ON DATA FROM DFO (POOR ABUNDANCES DETECTED IN STREAM WALK SURVEYS IN AREA 3), BELOW AVERAGE NUMBERS AT THE FISHWHEELS AND EXTREMELY LOW NUMBERS (604; FORECAST ~700 TO RETURN BASED ON 86% OF THE RUN TO DATE) AT THE KINCOLITH WEIR (AVERAGE RETURN OF EVEN-YR PINKS IS 9,000). AS A RESULT OF DOWNSIZING, THE NISGA’A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS PINK IS ~10,000 AND IS MUCH SMALLER THAN THE PRE-SEASON ESTIMATE (54,000). THE 2008 IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATE IS FORECASTING WELL BELOW AVERAGE (524,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS OF EVEN YEAR PINKS FROM 1994 TO 2007. THE 2008 RETURN APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST NASS AREA PINK SALMON EVEN-YR RETURN (230,000) IN 2006.

NOTE THAT PRE-SEASON AND IN-SEASON FORECASTING OF NASS AREA PINKS ARE POORLY DEVELOPED FOR AREA 3 CURRENTLY. NISGA’A FISHERIES IS DEVELOPING IN-SEASON METHODS WITH DFO FOR BETTER PREDICTING MAGNITUDE OF RETURNS IN THE FUTURE BASED ON FISHWHEEL MEAN CATCHES, KINCOLITH WEIR COUNTS AND ANY STREAM SURVEY INFORMATION THAT CAN BE COLLECTED DURING THE SEASON TO AID IN MANAGING NASS AREA PINKS AND TRACKING THE NISGA’A ENTITLEMENT.

THE TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS PINK TO DATE IS 4252. THIS TOTAL INCLUDES FSC CATCH (814) TO WEEK ENDING 23 AUGUST AND INDIVIDUAL MARINE SALE FISHERY CATCH ESTIMATE TO DATE (3438). THE NISGA’A CATCH MONITORING PROGRAM HAS NOW ENDED FOR 2008. SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO NISGA’A CATCH OF PINK WILL BE MADE IN FUTURE UPDATES BASED ON AVERAGE CATCHES WHEN MONITORING WAS CONDUCTED INTO SEPTEMBER.

NASS CHUM SALMON:

THE FISHWHEEL CATCH OF CHUM (31) TO DATE IS BELOW THE MEAN CATCH (108) LEVEL FROM 2000-2007.

NISGA'A FISHERIES DOWNSIZED THE PRE-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATE (90,000) TO ~21,000 (LOW RETURN ESTIMATE FROM 2007) ON 15 AUGUST FOR NASS AREA CHUMS BASED ON DATA FROM DFO (POOR ABUNDANCES DETECTED IN STREAM WALK SURVEYS AT STAGOO CREEK), BELOW AVERAGE NUMBERS AT THE FISHWHEELS AND EXTREMELY LOW NUMBERS THAT HAVE PASSED THE KINCOLITH WEIR (<20 FISH) TO DATE. AS A RESULT, THE NISGA’A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS AREA CHUM HAS BEEN DOWNSIZED FROM 7000 (PRE-SEASON) TO ~1680 (IN-SEASON). THE 2008 IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATE OF NASS CHUMS IS FORECASTING WELL BELOW AVERAGE (91,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS FROM 1994 TO 2007. PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT DATA COLLECTED TO DATE FROM STREAM SURVEYS SUGGEST THAT THE MINIMUM ESCAPEMENT GOAL (30,000) MAY NOT BE REACHED FOR NASS AREA CHUMS IN 2008.

NOTE THAT PRE-SEASON AND IN-SEASON FORECASTING OF NASS AREA CHUMS ARE POORLY DEVELOPED FOR AREA 3. NO RELIABLE METHODS ARE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE TO ESTIMATE ESCAPEMENT DURING THE SEASON, TRACK THE STATUS OF THE RUN OR THE NISGA’A ENTITLEMENT.

THE TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS CHUM TO DATE IS 489. THE TOTAL INCLUDES FSC CATCH (213) TO WEEK ENDING 23 AUGUST AND INDIVIDUAL MARINE SALE FISHERY CATCH ESTIMATE TO DATE (276). THE NISGA’A CATCH MONITORING PROGRAM HAS NOW ENDED FOR 2008. SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO NISGA’A CATCH OF CHUM WILL BE MADE IN FUTURE UPDATES BASED ON AVERAGE CATCHES WHEN MONITORING WAS CONDUCTED INTO SEPTEMBER.