Skeena sockeye run update

Well, the latest run size estimate now puts the sockeye run at 1.5 million. This is well above the pre-season forecasts and above the 1,150,000 threshold for commercial fisheries. This run size would allow for a harvestable surplus of 350,000 sockeye possibly obtained over several gillnet openings.

This increased run size estimate comes from mainly 2 days of a good push of sockeye past the Tyee test Fishery. See below:
Date...........Daily..........TTD (Total to date)
July 6th.......53.87..........178.26
July 7th.......60.32..........238.58
July 8th.......13.72..........252.31
(these 'basis points' are multiplied by a number...the multiplier....to get a run estimate. The sockeye multiplier looks to be about 692 or thereabouts.)

You can see that yesterday on the 8th things slowed down a bit. The disconcerting aspect of all this is based on statistical modeling of Tyee numbers and past run timing histories. Based on all that number crunching, fisheries managers have deemed the run to be over the threshold.....But, what if the numbers taper off from now on and do actually reflect the low forecast? The sockeye caught in the planned opening for Monday will then be needed for escapement purposes.
As usual, fisheries managers deem this an acceptable level of risk to take...and therefore plan to give the gillnetters an opening. Does the absolute dire circumstances of the gillnet fleet have something to do with this decision? Quite probably, as fisheries managers must be under tremendous pressure to provide an opening...any opening....for the beleagured gillnet fleet.