Nass Update to Sept.12th

Here's the latest Nass Update to September 12th.
Information courtesy Nisga'a Fisheries Department of Nisga'a Lisims Government.
As previously, we have taken the liberty of placing the Nass steelhead information first.

NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD:

IN-SEASON RUN SIZE ESTIMATES OR OTHER INFORMATION PRESENTED FOR NASS STEELHEAD ARE ONLY FOR SUMMER RUNS (I.E., DO NOT INCLUDE ANY ESTIMATES FOR WINTER OR SPRING RUN STEELHEAD) AND ONLY COVER RETURN INFORMATION FROM JUNE TO SEPTEMBER WHEN THE FISHWHEELS TYPICALLY OPERATE.

THE FISHWHEEL CATCH OF STEELHEAD (851 TOTAL; 293 GW FISHWHEELS) WHEN THE FISHWHEELS WERE SHUTDOWN ON 6 SEPTEMBER WERE ABOVE AVERAGE (779 TOTAL; 218 GW FISHWHEELS) FROM 2000-2007 FISHWHEEL OPERATIONS.

THE NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD IN-SEASON RUN SIZE ESTIMATE TO GITWINKSIHLKW (4926) WAS TRACKING BELOW AVERAGE (5800) WHEN THE FISHWHEELS WERE SHUTDOWN BASED ON A MEAN RUN SIZE TO GITWINKSIHLKW OF 7800 DURING FISHWHEEL OPERATIONS FROM 1994 TO 2007 (BASED ON PRELIMINARY HISTORICAL RUN SIZE DATA). HOWEVER, DURING TYPICAL GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEEL OPERATION, THE PRELIMINARY RUN SIZE TARGET FOR NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD TO GITWINKSIHLKW IS ~4200 DEPENDING ON ANY LOSSES PROJECTED ABOVE GITWINKSIHLKW AND HAS BEEN REACHED IN 2008. NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT ~94% (93-07 MEDIAN) OF THE RUN HAD PASSED GITWINKSIHLKW WHEN THE FISHWHEELS WERE SHUTDOWN BASED ON TYPICAL FISHWHEEL OPERATIONS.

THE IN-SEASON RUN SIZE ESTIMATE WAS A COMBINATION OF MARK-RECAPTURE AND HISTORICAL CATCH INDICES METHODS. THE MARK-RECAPTURE ESTIMATE USED MARK RATES DERIVED FROM THE COHO ASSESSMENT PROGRAM THAT ASSUMED SIMILAR CATCHABILITY BETWEEN COHO AND STEELHEAD BASED ON SIMILAR RUN TIMING PATTERNS. MARK-RATE SAMPLE SIZES ARE MUCH LARGER AND MORE RELIABLE FOR COHO THAN USING STEELHEAD MARK RATE DATA. STEELHEAD RUN SIZE ESTIMATES CHANGED OVER A 7-DAY PERIOD DUE TO COHO MARK RATES STABILIZING AT GREASE HARBOUR AS TAGGED FISH AT GITWINKSIHLKW PASSED THE UPSTREAM GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEEL SITES OVER A 7-DAY PERIOD. A SPREADSHEET OF THE CALCULATIONS AND RANGE OF ESTIMATES IS PROVIDED IN THE ATTACHMENT.

THE IN-SEASON NET RUN SIZE ESTIMATE ABOVE GREASE HARBOUR FOR NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD IS 4892 WHEN THE FISHWHEELS WERE SHUTDOWN. THE NET RUN SIZE TARGET FOR NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD ABOVE GREASE HARBOUR IS ~4000 DURING TYPICAL OPERATIONS OF THE GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEELS. THE PRELIMINARY NET ESCAPEMENT TARGET WAS ACHIEVED IN 2008 BASED ON CURRENT IN-SEASON ESTIMATES. THE FINAL FORECAST ESTIMATE PREDICTED A RETURN OF 5300 WHEN THE FISHWHEELS WERE SHUTDOWN AND ARE BASED ON THE IN-SEASON TO FINAL ESTIMATE REGRESSION METHOD DURING TYPICAL FISHWHEEL OPERATIONS.

TOTAL COUNTS OF STEELHEAD AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY TO 11 SEPTEMBER ARE: 9 ADULTS (1 FIN MARKED). THE 2008 CUMULATIVE ADULT COUNT TO DATE IS ABOVE AVERAGE (3) BASED ON MEAN COUNTS AT THE MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007. THE AVERAGE COUNT OF STEELHEAD DURING OPERATION OF MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007 WAS 50.

THE IN-SEASON TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS STEELHEAD IN 2008 IS 157. A TOTAL OF 26 STEELHEAD WERE ALSO RELEASED ALIVE DURING THE MARINE INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERIES CONDUCTED BETWEEN 16 JULY AND 1 AUGUST. THE NISGA’A CATCH MONITORING PROGRAM ENDED ON 23 AUGUST. THE TOTAL CATCH ESTIMATE INCLUDES AN ESTIMATE OF STEELHEAD CAUGHT AFTER THE END OF THE PROGRAM BASED ON AVERAGE CATCHES IN YEARS WHEN MONITORING WAS CONDUCTED AFTER 23 AUGUST. THE AVERAGE HARVEST OF NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD IN NISGA'A FISHERIES IS 400 FROM 1994 TO 2007.

2008 NASS STOCK ASSESSMENT UPDATE

ATTACHED IS A STOCK ASSESSMENT SUMMARY UPDATE FOR THE NASS RIVER (PDF FORMAT) FROM THE NISGA'A FISHERIES AND WILDLIFE DEPARTMENT OF NISGA'A LISIMS GOVERNMENT. SAYT-K'IL'IM-GOOT.

ALL DATA PRESENTED IN THIS UPDATE ARE PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH FURTHER ASSESSMENT INFORMATION THAT BECOMES AVAILABLE AND SHOULD BE INTERPRETED CAUTIOUSLY FOR IN-SEASON ASSESSMENT PURPOSES ONLY.

ARCHIVED UPDATES AND ANNOUNCEMENTS FROM NISGA'A FISHERIES AND WILDLIFE DEPARTMENT ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

FTP://ftp.lgl.com/pub//NASS_STOCK_ASSESSMENT_UPDATES

(NOTE: IT IS RECOMMENDED TO COPY FILES TO YOUR MACHINE BEFORE OPENING)

OPERATIONAL INFORMATION:

FISHWHEEL ASSESSMENT FINAL DATA TO: SATURDAY 6 SEPTEMBER
MEZIADIN ASSESSMENT DATA TO: THURSDAY 11 SEPTEMBER

GW FISHWHEELS (TEST FISHERY - 15TH YEAR):

FISHWHEELS 1 AND 2 WERE STARTED ON 5 JUNE FOR TAGGING AND HISTORICAL CATCH INDEX ASSESSMENTS FOR SALMON AND STEELHEAD.

FISHWHEELS 1 AND 2 WERE SHUTDOWN FOR THE SEASON ON SATURDAY 6 SEPTEMBER.

ALL FISH CAUGHT IN THE GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEELS WERE RELEASED ALIVE.

GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEELS:

THREE FISHWHEELS OPERATED AT GREASE HARBOUR FOR IN-SEASON MARK RECAPTURE TAG RECOVERIES IN 2008. THE FISHWHEEL START-UP DATES WERE: 11 JUNE (FW5), 12 JUNE (FW6) AND 13 JUNE (FW3).

ALL THREE GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEELS WERE SHUTDOWN FOR THE SEASON ON SATURDAY 6 SEPTEMBER.

ALL FISH CAUGHT IN THE GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEELS WERE RELEASED ALIVE.

NASS SOCKEYE SALMON:

THE IN-SEASON NASS SOCKEYE RUN SIZE ESTIMATE (191,861) TO GITWINKSIHLKW TO THE END OF FISHWHEEL OPERATION ON 6 SEPTEMBER WAS BELOW AVERAGE (279,000) BASED ON A MEAN RUN SIZE TO GITWINKSIHLKW OF 281,000 FROM 1994 TO 2007.

THE RUN SIZE ESTIMATE WAS A COMBINATION OF MARK-RECAPTURE AND HISTORICAL CATCH INDICES METHODS. THE MARK RECAPTURE ESTIMATES CHANGED OVER A 5-DAY PERIOD DUE TO MARK RATES STABILIZING AT GREASE HARBOUR AS FISH TAGGED AT GITWINKSIHLKW PASS THE UPSTREAM GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEEL SITES OVER A 5-DAY PERIOD. AFTER THE MARK RATE STABILIZED, THE DAILY ESTIMATE WAS BETTER AT PREDICTING ACTUAL CATCH EFFICIENCIES AT THE GW FISHWHEELS THAN THE HISTORICAL INDICES AND AN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES DURING THE SEASON. A SPREADSHEET OF THE CALCULATIONS AND RANGE OF ESTIMATES IS PROVIDED IN THE ATTACHMENT.

THE RUN SIZE TARGET FOR NASS SOCKEYE TO GITWINKSIHLKW WAS ~218,000 FOR 2008 BASED ON HARVESTS PROJECTED ABOVE GITWINKSIHLKW. NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT ~100% (93-07 MEDIAN) OF THE SOCKEYE RUN HAD PASSED GITWINKSIHLKW WHEN THE FISHWHEELS SHUTDOWN. FINAL FORECAST ESTIMATES PREDICTED THAT THE FINAL RUN SIZE PROJECTION WOULD NOT REACH THE TARGET WITH THE LAST ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 193,000 (MEAN RUN TIMING METHOD) TO 195,000 (IN-SEASON TO FINAL METHOD). HOWEVER, THE MINIMUM ESCAPEMENT TARGET (100,000) WAS ACHIEVED FOR NASS SOCKEYE IN 2008.

THE IN-SEASON NET ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATE FOR NASS SOCKEYE TO END OF FISHWHEEL OPERATION IS 174,841. THE NET ESCAPEMENT TARGET IS 200,000 (160,000 TO MEZIADIN RIVER AND 40,000 TO NON-MEZIADIN SYSTEMS). HOWEVER, PRELIMINARY MARK RECAPTURE DATA AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY SUGGEST THAT THE IN-SEASON RUN SIZE, NET ESCAPEMENT AND FORECAST ESTIMATES OF NASS SOCKEYE TO GITWINKSIHLKW ARE CONSERVATIVE AND MAY BE ~10-15% HIGHER (~20,000 TO 30,000 SOCKEYE) ASSUMING A 18-D LAG AND 20% MARK LOSS RATE. FINAL MARK RATES AND ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATES WILL BE AVAILABLE WHEN THE MEZIADIN FISHWAY SHUTS DOWN ON ~10 OCTOBER.

MEZIADIN FISHWAY OPENED ON 1 JULY FOR ESCAPEMENT COUNTS TO RIVER. TOTAL COUNTS OF SOCKEYE AT MEZIADIN TO 11 SEPTEMBER ARE: 149,129 ADULTS (4965 TAGS) AND 2767 JACKS. THE 2008 CUMULATIVE ADULT COUNT TO DATE IS BELOW AVERAGE (161,000) BASED ON MEAN COUNTS AT THE MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007. THE AVERAGE COUNT OF ADULT SOCKEYE FROM 1994 TO 2007 WAS 170,000. CURRENT FORECAST METHODS ARE RANGING FROM 150,000 (ADJUSTED FISHWHEEL MEAN RUN TIMING METHOD ASSUMING THE MAXIMUM MEZIADIN STOCK PROPORTION (85%)) TO 157,000 (MEZIADIN MEAN RUN TIMING METHOD) OF REACHING THE ESCAPEMENT TARGET (160,000). NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT ~96% OF THE MEZIADIN SOCKEYE RUN HAS REACHED THE FISHWAY TO DATE BASED ON MEAN COUNTS FROM 1990 TO 2007.

NISGA'A FISHERIES USED A PRELIMINARY TOTAL RETURN TO CANADA (TRTC) ESTIMATE FOR NASS SOCKEYE OF BETWEEN ~315,000 (IN-SEASON) AND 350,000 (PRE-SEASON) FOR TRACKING THE NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS SOCKEYE IN 2008 THAT RANGED BETWEEN 43,000 AND 52,000. TRTC RETURNS WERE INFLUENCED BY ALASKAN CATCHES WHICH WERE BELOW AVERAGE FOR 2008. THE 2008 TRTC RETURN WAS PROJECTED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE (666,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS FROM 1994 TO 2007.

THE IN-SEASON NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS SOCKEYE IN 2008 IS 45,409. THE TOTAL ESTIMATE INCLUDES FSC CATCH (27,681) AND INDIVIDUAL MARINE SALE FISHERY CATCH (17,728). THE ANNUAL TOTAL AVERAGE NISGA'A FSC HARVEST FROM 2000 TO 2007 OF NASS SOCKEYE WAS 26,000. THE NISGA’A CATCH MONITORING PROGRAM ENDED ON 23 AUGUST. THE TOTAL CATCH ESTIMATE INCLUDES AN ESTIMATE OF SOCKEYE CAUGHT AFTER THE END OF THE PROGRAM BASED ON AVERAGE CATCHES IN YEARS WHEN MONITORING WAS CONDUCTED AFTER 23 AUGUST.

NISGA'A FOOD FISH (FSC) HARVESTING IS OPEN FOR ALL SPECIES. GIVEN THAT THE TOTAL FSC AMOUNT WAS PROJECTED TO NOT EXCEED THE TOTAL NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT ESTIMATE FOR 2008, THE REMAINING ENTITLEMENT (~20,000) WAS AVAILABLE FOR SALE FISHERIES. THE DIRECTOR OF NISGA'A FISHERIES AND WILDLIFE OPENED THE NISGA'A MARINE INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERY FOR HARVESTING NASS SOCKEYE AS SALE FISHERIES FOR FOUR 48-HR OPENINGS FROM 16 JULY TO 1 AUGUST THAT CAUGHT A TOTAL OF 17,728 SOCKEYE. AFTER 1 AUGUST, THE MARINE INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERY CLOSED FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2008. IN-RIVER SALE FISHERIES DID NOT OPEN FOR 2008 INCLUDING HARVESTING FROM THE FISHWHEELS. ALL FISH WERE RELEASED FROM THE FISHWHEELS.

FOUR NISGA'A INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERIES OCCURRED IN 2008 (16-17 JULY [17 BOATS]; 17-18 JULY [17 BOATS]; 23-25 JULY [17 BOATS]; 30 JULY - 1 AUGUST [~21 BOATS]) IN AREA 3-12. TOTAL CATCHES IN THE NISGA'A MARINE SALE FISHERIES WERE: 17,728 SOCKEYE; 3,438 PINK; 793 COHO AND 276 CHUM.

THE NISGA'A NATION PASSED A RESOLUTION AT THE SPECIAL ASSEMBLY IN MAY 2008 RECOMMENDING THE CLOSURE OF THE GENERAL COMMERCIAL FISHERY IN AREA 3-12 DUE TO PRE-SEASON CONSERVATION CONCERNS OF NASS SOCKEYE AND CHINOOK. DFO KEPT AREA 3-12 CLOSED TO 20 JULY DUE TO THE POOR RETURN OF CHINOOK AND ENSURING GOOD ESCAPEMENT OF NASS SOCKEYE INTO THE RIVER AT THE TIME. DFO OPENED AREA 3-12 TO THE GENERAL COMMERCIAL FISHERY STARTING ON 21 JULY WITH THE MAJORITY OF NASS CHINOOK THROUGH THE MARINE WATERS AND THE NASS SOCKEYE RUN TRACKING ON TARGET OF REACHING THE ESCAPEMENT GOAL AT THE TIME. AREA 3-12 HAS BEEN CLOSED SINCE 27 JULY AND THE REST OF AREA 3 SINCE 29 JULY. A TOTAL OF 7633 SOCKEYE WERE CAUGHT IN AREA 3 BETWEEN 21 JULY AND 29 JULY.

AREA 3 FISHERIES CONDUCTED IN 2008 WERE 7 GILLNET [24 JUNE (170 BOATS), 1 JULY (209 BOATS), 7 JULY (174 BOATS), 14 JULY (179 BOATS), 15 JULY (5 BOATS), 21 JULY (16) AND 27 JULY (33)] AND 4 SEINE (14 JULY (13 BOATS), 15 JULY (5 BOATS), 21 JULY (13 BOATS) AND 29 JULY (7 BOATS)) FISHERIES. TOTAL COMMERCIAL HARVEST ESTIMATES IN AREA 3 ARE: 37,501 SOCKEYE; 17,972 PINK; 14,135 CHUM AND 405 CHINOOK (SOURCE OF DATA IS FROM DFO PRINCE RUPERT FISHERIES MANAGEMENT).

ALASKAN GILLNET FISHERIES IN DISTRICTS 101 (TREE POINT) AND 106 (SUMNER AND UPPER CLARENCE) BEGAN ON 15 JUNE AND 8 JUNE, RESPECTIVELY. ALASKAN SEINE FISHERIES OPENING DATES WERE: DISTRICTS 101 (LOWER CLARENCE/REVILLA; OPENED ON 6 JULY), 102 (MIDDLE CLARENCE; OPENED ON 22 JUNE), 103 (CORDOVA; OPENED 24 JULY) AND 104 (NOYES/DALL; OPENED ON 6 JULY). LATEST ALASKAN OPENINGS ARE: GN (101 (SECTION 1-B ONLY AND 106) – 14-18 SEPTEMBER; AND SN (103 ONLY) – 15 SEPTEMBER.

TOTAL IN-SEASON CATCH ESTIMATE OF SOCKEYE IN SOUTHEAST ALASKAN FISHERIES IS 127,079 BASED ON DATA TO 12 SEPTEMBER ON THE ADFG WEBSITE AND IS INCOMPLETE CATCH REPORTING FOR WEEK 37 (ENDS 13 SEPTEMBER). REPORTED CATCHES ARE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TO DATE. THE AVERAGE CATCH OF SOCKEYE IN SOUTHEAST ALASKAN FISHERIES IS 714,000 SOCKEYE FROM 1999 TO 2007.

OF THE TOTAL ALASKAN CATCH OF SOCKEYE, NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING APPROXIMATELY ~35,500 ARE NASS SOCKEYE BASED ON AVERAGE STOCK % DATA (1982-98) AND WAS BELOW AVERAGE. AVERAGE CATCH OF NASS SOCKEYE IS 165,000 FROM 1999 TO 2007.



NASS CHINOOK SALMON:

THE NASS CHINOOK RUN SIZE ESTIMATE TO GITWINKSIHLKW (14,178) WAS BELOW AVERAGE (22,500) WHEN THE FISHWHEELS SHUTDOWN ON 6 SEPTEMBER BASED ON A MEAN RUN SIZE TO GITWINKSIHLKW OF 22,500 FROM 1994 TO 2007. THE RUN SIZE TARGET FOR NASS CHINOOK TO GITWINKSIHLKW WAS 17,000 DEPENDING ON HARVESTS PROJECTED ABOVE GITWINKSIHLKW. THE IN-SEASON TRACKING OF THE NASS CHINOOK RUN TO GITWINKSIHLKW PREDICTED ~14,000 [MEAN RUN TIMING METHOD AND IN-SEASON TO FINAL METHOD] AS THE FINAL IN-SEASON RUN SIZE TOTAL TO GITWINKSIHLKW. THE 2008 RETURN TO DATE IS THE THIRD WORST ON RECORD SINCE THE START OF THE NISGA'A FISHERIES PROGRAM IN 1992. NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT ~100% (93-07 MEDIAN) OF THE RUN HAD PASSED GITWINKSIHLKW WHEN THE FISHWHEELS SHUTDOWN.

THE IN-SEASON NET ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATE FOR NASS CHINOOK IS 12,968. THE NET ESCAPEMENT TARGET FOR NASS CHINOOK ABOVE GREASE HARBOUR WAS 15,000. A PRELIMINARY REVIEW OF MARK-RECAPTURE DATA AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY IS INDICATING THAT IN-SEASON ESTIMATES MAY BE CONSERVATIVE AND FINAL POST-SEASON ESTIMATES MAY BE HIGHER SUGGESTING A POSSIBILITY THAT THE ESCAPEMENT TARGET WAS REACHED IN 2008. NOTE THAT THE MINIMUM ESCAPEMENT TARGET (10,000) FOR NASS CHINOOK WAS ACHIEVED IN 2008.

TOTAL COUNTS OF CHINOOK AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY TO 11 SEPTEMBER ARE: 506 ADULTS (17 TAGS) AND 59 JACKS. THE 2008 CUMULATIVE ADULT COUNT TO DATE IS ABOVE AVERAGE (431) BASED ON MEAN COUNTS AT THE MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007. THE AVERAGE COUNT OF ADULT CHINOOK AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007 WAS 480. THE FISHWHEEL MEAN-RUN TIMING FORECAST IS PREDICTING 590 CHINOOK TO REACH THE FISHWAY BASED ON CURRENT ESCAPEMENT PASSED GW AND ESTIMATED STOCK COMPOSITION (4.7%). OTHER FORECASTS RANGE BETWEEN 540 (IN-SEASON TO FINAL MEZIADIN COUNT METHOD) AND 560 (MEZIADIN MEAN RUN TIMING METHOD). NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT ~91% OF THE MEZIADIN CHINOOK RUN HAS PASSED THE FISHWAY TO DATE BASED ON MEAN COUNTS FROM 1990 TO 2007.

MARK-RECAPTURE SURVEYS FOR FINAL ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATES ARE BEING CONDUCTED AT KWINAGEESE AND DAMDOCHAX RIVERS IN SEPTEMBER 2008. FINAL ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATES WILL BE AVAILABLE IN LATE OCTOBER WHEN THE MEZIADIN FISHWAY SHUTS DOWN.

THE KINCOLITH VIDEO-COUNTING FENCE BEGAN OPERATION ON 11 JUNE FOR COLLECTING ESCAPEMENT DATA FOR THE KINCOLITH RIVER AND PROVIDING AN INDEX OF ESCAPEMENT TO COASTAL STREAMS IN AREA 3. NET UPSTREAM COUNTS AT THE WEIR TO 9 SEPTEMBER ARE: 851 CHINOOK (179 AFC AND 39 BROODSTOCK), 1213 PINK, 93 COHO AND 20 CHUM. OTHER WEIR COUNTS TO DATE ARE: 13 STEELHEAD (5 UP & 8 DOWN) AND 6 CUTTHROAT/RAINBOW TROUT (5 UP & 1 DOWN IN JULY; <50 CM AND SEA RUN; FINAL ID CONFIRMED AT END OF SEASON). THE COUNT OF CHINOOK PASSING THE WEIR IN 2008 WAS BELOW THE AVERAGE COUNT (1124) FOR CURRENT DATE FROM PAST OPERATIONS (2001, 2002, 2005-2007). HOWEVER, NISGA'A FISHERIES PROJECTED THAT THE ESCAPEMENT GOAL (700) WOULD BE REACHED IN 2008 BASED ON THE RUN SIZE FORECAST METHOD. NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT ~99% OF THE KINCOLITH CHINOOK RUN HAS PASSED THE WEIR TO DATE BASED ON THE RECONSTRUCTED MEAN RUN TIMING.

NISGA'A FISHERIES USED A PRELIMINARY TRTC ESTIMATE FOR NASS CHINOOK OF BETWEEN 20,500 (IN-SEASON) AND 21,000 (PRE-SEASON) FOR TRACKING THE NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS CHINOOK IN 2008. THE 2008 TRTC ESTIMATES FORECASTED FOR A BELOW AVERAGE RETURN (36,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS FROM 1994 TO 2007. UNCERTAINTY OF MARINE COMMERCIAL AND RECREATIONAL CATCHES OF NASS CHINOOK MADE IT DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY ESTIMATE IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATES FOR NASS CHINOOK. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATES FOR 2008, THE NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS CHINOOK WAS ~4000. A PORTION OF THE CUMULATIVE UNDERAGE OF 3300 FROM PAST YEAR'S MANAGEMENT UNCERTAINTY MAY BE NEEDED TO FULFILL NISGA'A FSC NEEDS IN 2008 WHICH ON AVERAGE TOTALS 6200 NASS CHINOOK. THE FINAL ENTITLEMENT TARGET IS EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000.

THE IN-SEASON TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS CHINOOK IN 2008 IS 4342 (INCLUDING ANGLING HARVESTS ON KINCOLITH RIVER) AND BELOW AVERAGE (00-07). THE ANNUAL TOTAL AVERAGE NISGA'A FSC HARVEST OF NASS CHINOOK FROM 2000 TO 2007 WAS 6200. THE NISGA’A CATCH MONITORING PROGRAM ENDED ON 23 AUGUST. THE TOTAL ESTIMATE INCLUDES AN ESTIMATE OF CHINOOK CAUGHT AFTER THE END OF THE PROGRAM BASED ON AVERAGE CATCHES IN YEARS WHEN MONITORING WAS CONDUCTED AFTER 23 AUGUST. NO CHINOOK WERE PERMITTED FOR SALE IN ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERIES THAT WERE CONDUCTED IN 2008.

NASS COHO SALMON:

THE IN-SEASON NASS COHO RUN SIZE ESTIMATE TO GITWINKSIHLKW (89,176) WAS TRACKING ABOVE AVERAGE (71,000) WHEN THE FISHWHEELS SHUTDOWN ON 6 SEPTEMBER BASED ON A MEAN RUN SIZE TO GITWINKSIHLKW OF 76,000 FROM 1994 TO 2007. THE RUN SIZE TARGET FOR NASS COHO TO GITWINKSIHLKW WAS ~50,000 IN 2008 AND DEPENDED ON HARVESTS PROJECTED ABOVE GITWINKSIHLKW AND DURING TYPICAL GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEEL OPERATION (JUNE TO EARLY-MID SEPTEMBER). NISGA'A FISHERIES ESTIMATES THAT ~96% (93-07 MEDIAN) OF THE RUN HAD PASSED GITWINKSIHLKW WHEN THE FISHWHEELS WERE SHUTDOWN. THEREFORE, THE IN-SEASON RUN SIZE ESTIMATES ARE CONSERVATIVE FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER NASS COHO STOCKS AS COHO CONTINUE TO PASS THE FISHWHEELS AFTER OPERATIONS.

THE RUN SIZE ESTIMATES WERE A COMBINATION OF MARK-RECAPTURE AND HISTORICAL CATCH INDICES METHODS. THEE MARK RECAPTURE ESTIMATES CHANGED OVER A 7-DAY PERIOD DUE TO MARK RATES STABILIZING AT GREASE HARBOUR AS COHO TAGGED AT GITWINKSIHLKW PASSED THE UPSTREAM GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEEL SITES OVER A 7-DAY PERIOD. A SPREADSHEET OF THE CALCULATIONS AND RANGE IN ESTIMATES IS PROVIDED IN THE ATTACHMENT.

THE IN-SEASON NET ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATE FOR NASS COHO IS 88,630 WHEN THE FISHWHEELS WERE SHUTDOWN. THE NET ESCAPEMENT TARGET FOR NASS COHO ABOVE GREASE HARBOUR WAS ~41,000 DURING TYPICAL OPERATIONS OF THE GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEELS FROM JUNE TO FIRST OR SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. THE NET ESCAPEMENT TARGET WAS ACHIEVED IN 2008 BASED ON CURRENT IN-SEASON ESTIMATES. FORECAST ESTIMATES OF ESCAPEMENT PREDICTED FROM 94,000 (FISHWHEEL MEAN RUN TIMING; RANGE 89,000-99,000) TO 95,000 (IN-SEASON TO FINAL ESTIMATE METHOD) TO REACH GITWINKSIHLKW DURING TYPICAL FISHWHEEL OPERATION.

TOTAL COUNTS OF COHO AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY TO 11 SEPTEMBER ARE: 2689 ADULTS (72 TAGS) AND 34 JACKS. THE 2008 CUMULATIVE ADULT COUNT TO DATE IS ABOVE AVERAGE (1612) BASED ON MEAN COUNTS AT THE MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007. THE AVERAGE COUNT OF ADULT COHO AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007 WAS 3600.

FINAL ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATES FOR NASS COHO WILL BE AVAILABLE IN NOVEMBER OR DECEMBER AFTER ANY LOWER NASS STREAM SURVEYS ARE CONDUCTED, KINCOLITH WEIR AND MEZIADIN FISHWAY OPERATIONS ARE SHUTDOWN.

NISGA'A FISHERIES USED A PRELIMINARY TRTC ESTIMATE FOR NASS COHO OF BETWEEN 104,000 (PRE-SEASON) AND 175,000 (IN-SEASON) FOR TRACKING THE NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS COHO IN 2008 THAT RANGED BETWEEN 8,000 AND 14,000. THE 2008 IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATE PROJECTED FOR AN AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE RETURN (162,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS FROM 1994 TO 2007.

THE IN-SEASON TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS COHO IN 2008 IS 3069. THE TOTAL ESTIMATE INCLUDES FSC CATCH (2276) AND INDIVIDUAL MARINE SALE FISHERY CATCH (793). THE NISGA’A CATCH MONITORING PROGRAM ENDED ON 23 AUGUST. THE TOTAL ESTIMATE INCLUDES AN ESTIMATE OF COHO CAUGHT AFTER THE END OF THE PROGRAM BASED ON AVERAGE CATCHES IN YEARS WHEN MONITORING WAS CONDUCTED AFTER 23 AUGUST.

NASS PINK SALMON:

THE FISHWHEEL CATCH OF PINK SALMON (1932 TOTAL; 1357 GW FISHWHEELS) TO THE END OF THE FISHWHEEL OPERATION WAS WELL BELOW AVERAGE (16,000 TOTAL; 12,000 GW FISHWHEELS) FOR EVEN-YEAR RETURNS FROM 2000 TO 2007.

NISGA'A FISHERIES DOWNSIZED THE PRE-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATE (569,000) TO ~285,000 (~1/2 OF PRE-SEASON ESTIMATE) ON 15 AUGUST FOR NASS PINKS BASED ON DATA FROM DFO (POOR ABUNDANCES DETECTED IN STREAM WALK SURVEYS IN AREA 3), BELOW AVERAGE NUMBERS AT THE FISHWHEELS AND EXTREMELY LOW NUMBERS (<1000) AT THE KINCOLITH WEIR (AVERAGE RETURN OF EVEN-YR PINKS IS 9,000). AS A RESULT OF DOWNSIZING, THE NISGA’A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS PINK WAS ~10,000 AND WAS MUCH SMALLER THAN THE PRE-SEASON ESTIMATE (54,000). THE 2008 IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATE FORECASTED WELL BELOW AVERAGE (524,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS OF EVEN YEAR PINKS FROM 1994 TO 2007. THE 2008 RETURN APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST NASS AREA PINK SALMON EVEN-YR RETURN (230,000) IN 2006.

NOTE THAT PRE-SEASON AND IN-SEASON FORECASTING OF NASS AREA PINKS ARE POORLY DEVELOPED FOR AREA 3 CURRENTLY. NISGA’A FISHERIES IS DEVELOPING IN-SEASON METHODS WITH DFO FOR BETTER PREDICTING MAGNITUDE OF RETURNS IN THE FUTURE BASED ON FISHWHEEL MEAN CATCHES, KINCOLITH WEIR COUNTS AND ANY STREAM SURVEY INFORMATION THAT CAN BE COLLECTED DURING THE SEASON TO AID IN MANAGING NASS AREA PINKS AND TRACKING THE NISGA’A ENTITLEMENT.

THE IN-SEASON TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS PINK IN 2008 IS 4324. THE TOTAL ESTIMATE INCLUDES FSC CATCH (886) AND INDIVIDUAL MARINE SALE FISHERY CATCH (3438). THE NISGA’A CATCH MONITORING PROGRAM ENDED ON 23 AUGUST. THE TOTAL CATCH ESTIMATE INCLUDES AN ESTIMATE OF PINKS CAUGHT AFTER THE END OF THE PROGRAM BASED ON AVERAGE CATCHES IN YEARS WHEN MONITORING WAS CONDUCTED AFTER 23 AUGUST.

NASS CHUM SALMON:

THE FISHWHEEL CATCH OF CHUM (52 TOTAL; 38 GW FISHWHEELS) WHEN THE FISHWHEELS ENDED ON 6 SEPTEMBER WAS WELL BELOW AVERAGE (148 TOTAL; 113 GW FISHWHEELS) LEVEL FROM 2000-2007.

NISGA'A FISHERIES DOWNSIZED THE PRE-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATE (90,000) TO ~21,000 (LOW RETURN ESTIMATE FROM 2007) ON 15 AUGUST FOR NASS AREA CHUMS BASED ON DATA FROM DFO (POOR ABUNDANCES DETECTED IN STREAM WALK SURVEYS AT STAGOO CREEK), BELOW AVERAGE NUMBERS AT THE FISHWHEELS AND EXTREMELY LOW NUMBERS THAT HAVE PASSED THE KINCOLITH WEIR (<20 FISH). AS A RESULT, THE NISGA’A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS AREA CHUM WAS DOWNSIZED FROM 7000 (PRE-SEASON) TO ~1680 (IN-SEASON). THE 2008 IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATE OF NASS CHUMS WAS FORECASTING WELL BELOW AVERAGE (91,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS FROM 1994 TO 2007. PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT DATA COLLECTED TO DATE FROM STREAM SURVEYS SUGGEST THAT THE MINIMUM ESCAPEMENT GOAL (30,000) MAY NOT BE REACHED FOR NASS AREA CHUMS IN 2008.

NOTE THAT PRE-SEASON AND IN-SEASON FORECASTING OF NASS AREA CHUMS ARE POORLY DEVELOPED FOR AREA 3. NO RELIABLE METHODS ARE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE TO ESTIMATE ESCAPEMENT DURING THE SEASON, TRACK THE STATUS OF THE RUN OR THE NISGA’A ENTITLEMENT.

THE IN-SEASON TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS CHUM IN 2008 IS 495. THE TOTAL ESTIMATE INCLUDES FSC CATCH (219) AND INDIVIDUAL MARINE SALE FISHERY CATCH (276). THE NISGA’A CATCH MONITORING PROGRAM ENDED ON 23 AUGUST. THE TOTAL CATCH ESTIMATE INCLUDES AN ESTIMATE OF CHUMS CAUGHT AFTER THE END OF THE PROGRAM BASED ON AVERAGE CATCHES IN YEARS WHEN MONITORING WAS CONDUCTED AFTER 23 AUGUST.