Skeena sockeye still lagging

As we can see from the Area Chief's Update#4,the Skeena sockeye return is still lower than expected.
http://skeenafisheriesblog.blogspot.com/2009/07/north-coast-update-4.html
This early returning timeframe is always a volatile forecast situation as evidenced by the recent lowering of the sockeye forecast return. The pre-season forecast shown in Update #1 and #2 of 2 million sockeye was revised down to 1.5 million a few days ago and revised downward again as of yesterday to 1.3 million.

To July 7th:
Sockeye Index: 2000's Average 90's Average
182.45........................301.79........................192.49

As the Area Chief states, they would require several days of large sockeye returns past Tyee in order to bump up the forecast and therefore allow commercial openings. An escapement of 1.2 million is required prior to allowing commercial openings.

Remember in 2008 just such a bump of sockeye came through on July 13 and 14 with Daily Tyee Index numbers that were huge. In fact, July 13th, 2008 was the fifth highest daily sockeye index ever at 168.29. (We posted about it here:http://skeenafisheriesblog.blogspot.com/2008/07/recent-sockeye-numbers.html) So, the fish can show up all of a sudden.