Thursday, July 22, 2010

Tyee Uncertainty

With Tyee over-estimating the sockeye return 11 of the last 14 years, it makes you wonder if the recent stronger sockeye Index numbers are 'real'. We wonder what is DFO's margin for error with the Index numbers....we do know the numbers assist in giving managers a range in the return depending upon if the run timing is 'normal' or if it is 'late'....and usually the range can be quite large.

Just recently we saw the classic management faux pas from DFO: a few strong days of sockeye numbers at Tyee sucked them into allowing an opening in Skeena. Immediately afterward the sockeye Index numbers dropped and the run estimate was revised further openings were contemplated until numbers rebounded.
Now they are sanctioning more openings...let's hope the decision isnt another roll of the dice and that there truly is a harvestable surplus.

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